Torneo Final Big Match Preview: River Plate v Quilmes AC

 

Less than a year after returning to the top flight, River Plate could well be restored to their former glories under legendary manager Ramón Diaz. Quilmes came up with them and will be happy with mid-table, but the Millionarios must win to maintain their title challenge...

 

River Plate have had a little wobble, but Lanús's spate of draws and Newell's battling on both fronts has allowed them back in to the title race.

 

Just two points off the joint-leaders, Ramón Diaz's men are most certainly in with a shout, and can consider themselves lucky that their notoriously fruitful academy has chucked another gem off the conveyor belt.

 

An enormous list of injuries, and long-term ones at that,  in defence had threatened to derail River's season but instead it could end in another financial boost for the club.

 

Centre-back Éder Balanta is just 20 but plays with a maturity far beyond his years. The Colombian is also an incredible physical specimen; fit, strong and quick off the mark, enabling him to deal with virtually everything the Argentine Primera has to throw at him.

 

Two man of the match performances in just three starts for the club speaks volumes about how key he has been, and is especially impressive when you consider that River's defensive shield - and Argentine international midfielder - Leonardo Ponzio has been out injured too.

 

Quilmes, their visitors this week, have had injury problems of their own. Long-term absentee Miguel Caneo was their key playmaker last season, but despite being welcomed back recently after a lengthly spell on the sidelines, he has quickly experienced a recurrence of his injury and won't feature this weekend.

 

Martin Cauteruccio's goals still manage to keep the Brewers in contention but a dip in form has seen them slink into mid-table and a respectable position and adding to their total in the average points (relegation) table is what yo-yoing Quilmes must now focus on.

 

The visitors will have been disappointed to see River exit the Copa Argentina in embarrassing circumstances in midweek, and they now must face a slightly angered giant, keen to reassert their dominance on the pitch and push the top two.

 

 

Match odds

 

River are understandable odds-on favourites based on form and the wealth of talent at their disposal, while Quilmes would undoubtedly be content with a point.

 

This weekend more than others it is worth considering what effect future fixtures will have on the game. Sometimes cited as a weakness, it is very much up for debate how much impact the looming Superclasico will have on players.

 

On one hand, all River players will be concerned about getting injured ahead of the big game at La Bombonera next weekend?  but at the same time, it is important to put in a performance if you want to be starting in the biggest game of the year - and for this game we are not foreseeing it as an issue.

 

Therefore, we are backing River at 1.84.

 

 

Goals

 

Quilmes' games have one of the highest goal averages in the league, with 2.9 goals per game and seven of their matches going over 2.5.

 

River have been more unpredictable, with their games averaging 2.2, but the price of 2.42 for over 2.5 goals seems to suggest this game is a cut and dried low-scorer.

 

The stats don't agree and therefore the value lies in the overs.

 

 

Other bets

 

River's lineup for this game looks very impressive, and with Quilmes missing some key names you have to be backing the hosts, but there is also half an eye on Draw/River in the HT/FT market.

 

The Millionarios have led at half time in just one of their last six, so 4.7 for them to overcome a stalemate at the break and take all three points looks like value.

 

Recommended Bets

Recommended bet: Back River to win @ 1.84

Other bets: Back Draw/River (HT/FT) @ 4.7

 

Bet HERE

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