Tottenham must beware of Europa League fatigue

 

Gareth Bale-inspired Spurs are having a great season - favourites to finish in the top four and to win the Europa League too. But Ralph Ellis warns that yesterday's defeat at Anfield could spell trouble ahead for AVB's men, citing scientific analysis of post Europa League fatigue

 

This time of year must be agony for Spurs fans. So many times they have seen a good season suddenly go pear shaped when the clocks are changed.

 

It all began from the great "lasagne" affair in 2006 when Martin Jol thought he'd got his team primed for a place in the Champions League, only for the players to come down with a mystery stomach bug and get beaten on the last day at West Ham. Their hotel catering unfairly took the blame, but in truth Spurs had already been stumbling, taking only ten points from their final seven fixtures.

 

In 2008 they were never in contention, but seven points from the final seven games under Juande Ramos (in the post League Cup win lull) still signalled the troubles that were to come at the start of the following campaign, when only Harry Redknapp's arrival rescued them from potential relegation.

 

The Champions League finally arrived with fourth place in 2010, but 12 months later just eight points from as many games in late March and April meant only fifth place - and then last season another horror run of six points from nine in the same two months helped to end the Redknapp regime. He managed fourth, of course, but Chelsea's against all odds Champions League triumph meant that wasn't enough.

 

So what will happen to Tottenham this time round? They were cruising on a Gareth Bale inspired unbeaten spell until yesterday's 3-2 defeat at Anfield. Will that be a blip? Or will they be April fools once more?

 

Betfair's punters currently take the view that all is well. AVB's men remain strong odds-on at 1.43 for a top four finish, and are the new 4.6 favourites to win the Europa League. But the danger is there of failing in both.

 

It is an even bigger risk if you take into account the research of Raymond Verheijen, the Dutch expert in football fitness who used to work as Gary Speed's assistant with Wales. He published last May a scientific paper on the effects of fatigue for teams in the Europa League - and found that sides who play on Thursday have a 40% reduced chance of winning on a Sunday.

 

His analysis was done covering more than 27,000 matches in Europe's top seven competitions. Europa League sides scored 70% fewer goals in the last 30 minutes of their next weekend domestic games, and were 75% more likely to concede during that time. It's research that's worth knowing when you are planning your bets.

 

Maybe Tottenham could point to the Sunday success of Newcastle and Chelsea this weekend to rubbish Verheijen's theories. Alan Pardew's side came from behind to beat Stoke with an injury time Papiss Cisse winner, while Rafa Benitez presided over that thrilling FA Cup comeback at Old Trafford.

 

But both those managers made seven changes from their Europa League line-ups, meaning they were effectively playing their big domestic game with a fresh team - in contrast AVB had eight of the 11 who thumped Inter Milan on duty at Anfield.

 

Villas-Boas insisted only last week that his Spurs side can cope with the demands, and that Euro tiredness is a myth. And true, Tottenham have won five of eight post-Europa matches this season, losing only three. But the games they have lost were all against top teams - Manchester City, Everton and now Liverpool; the wins were all over bottom half sides - QPR, Aston Villa, Southampton and West Ham twice.

 

At the very least it's a concern for White Hart Lane supporters; and at this time of year history gives them enough worries already.

 

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