Two and a Half Goals Column: Go unders at the Bridge

6Apr 2013

England - Premier League

It's a Premier League special this weekend as The Inside Man determines whether we'll see Under or Over 2.5 Goals in these four games...

Saturday

Reading v Southampton

Motivation could not be any greater for Reading to win. Putting together a string of victories is the Royals' only hope of pulling-off a miraculous escape from the clutches of relegation. It also offers the chance of payback for jilted Saints boss, turned Reading manager, Nigel Adkins. So expect Reading to come flying out of the traps in that typical Adkins style which, as we saw at Southampton, tends to bring goals.

Interestingly though, Mauricio Pochettino's arrival has done little to stem the flow of goals at St. Mary's. Of the nine games played since the Argentine's arrival, seven have been high-scoring, with two nil-nils. So provided an opponent doesn't manage to hold out, once one goal goes in, others have always followed.

But not only is holding-on for a 0-0 draw not in Reading's interests, it's also something that seems beyond them. The Londoners have conceded more goals than anyone else in the Premier League, with nine of their last ten games producing more than two and a half goals, while Adkins signalled his arrival at the club in typical fashion with last week's 4-1 defeat at Arsenal.

Recommended Bet: Back Over 2.5 goals @ 1.83

Norwich v Swansea

Norwich are still very much in the thick of the relegation battle, which is surprising given their impressive home form, which has seen them lose just three of 15 matches at Carrow Road.

Woeful away form has been the problem, but at home the Canaries have been on-song, and the secret has been a strong defence. It's helped Norwich to grind out a number of important victories. But notably there've also been a number of low-scoring stalemates. And as a result, Carrow Road has seen the 2nd-lowest number of goals of any ground in the Premier League this season.

Of their last five home games, four ended in such low-scoring draws, combined with a 2-1 win over Everton. But while the win-ratio hasn't been great, Norwich will know they only need to continue chalking up points in this manner and it will see them stay up.

Swansea are already safe and don't seem to have the firepower to threaten their hosts, having scored less than a goal a game on their travels this season. But with three nil-nils from their last seven away games, they also look to have the defensive strength to ensure that this match remains low-scoring.

Recommended Bet: Back Under 2.5 goals @ 1.84

Sunday

Chelsea v Sunderland

We all know about the arrival of Paulo Di Canio. The big unknown though, is how will his arrival affect the play of Sunderland.

Well, looking back at his time at Swindon, Di Canio's side scored 155 goals in 95 games. That's a goal ratio that would put them on a par with sides lying midtable in the Premier League at present. What's more impressive though is his attention to defence, with just 76 goals conceded during those 95 matches. That's an outstanding record which, if he could replicate it in the Premier League, would make his side the most watertight in the division.

Of course, this all conjecture, but there is some evidence to suggest that Di Caprio will try turn Sunderland into a solid unit, before he goes about making them into entertainers. His arrival should also give the players a boost, as they look to impress their new boss, and that, coupled with a cautious approach, could see the Mackems make life difficult for a Chelsea side who've become notoriously fickle under Rafa Benitez and who may just lack the appetite should this come down to a battle of who wants it most.

Recommended Bet: Back Under 2.5 goals @ 2.3

Liverpool v West Ham

Once again Liverpool proved a legal means of printing money last week, as they obliged us with goals for the 15th time in their last 16 matches.

And with some of their high-flying neighbours stumbling, it also gave belief to Liverpool's dream they might still attain a Champions League spot come the end of the season.

To achieve that though, there can be no slip-ups from here on in. But if they are going to fail, it won't be through lack of adventure. Since losing at home to West Brom, Liverpool have known they're drinking at the last-chance saloon and have really gone for it. As a result, there've been first half goals in all five of their matches since, with some of those strikes coming as early as the second and sixth minutes.

Next up for Liverpool, it's a West Ham side who are akin to butter in front of an open fire in terms of away form. Two thirds of the Hammers' away games end in defeat. And this could be one of the most high-scoring ones, if their 3-2 loss in the reverse fixture for this match is anything to go by.

Recommended Bet: Back Over 2.5 goals @ 1.61