Two and a Half Goals: Slim win for United, big win for City

30Mar 2013

Betfair

A quartet of over/under 2.5 goals bets for this weekend's football including selections for both Manchester clubs' games...

Saturday

Sunderland v Man Utd

Holding a 15 point lead over nearest rivals Manchester City, and with other footballing fish still to fry, it's noticeable that Manchester United have, as of late, been less ruthless than usual.

United have continued to win, and often dominate, but the victory margins have been smaller and the number of goals per game has been less. In particular, if we look at the games played away from Old Trafford, the Reds have been especially cautious. Their last five away games produced three wins and two draws, but more importantly four of those five matches were low-scoring.

With the FA Cup representing their only remaining interest outside the league, be sure that Monday's replay with Chelsea will take precedence over this fixture.

And that gives Sunderland an above average chance of producing a surprise, especially given that this fixture is usually a tight affair anyway, with United's last three visits to the Stadium of Light having produced only two goals between them.

Throw in the fact that Sunderland still need a few points to be sure of survival, plus the absence of their top-scorer Steven Fletcher, and all roads lead to yet another low-scoring encounter between these sides.

Recommended Bet

Back Under 2.5 goals @ 1.86

Manchester City v Newcastle

But while United might be easing off the gas, I expect their city rivals to put the pedal to the metal in one last, albeit probably forlorn, attempt to try put some pressure on the leaders.

On any given Saturday, a meeting between these sides should produce goals, with the third strongest attack at home going up against the third weakest defence on the road. With 31 goals conceded on their travels, Newcastle have been leaking more than two goals a game away from home, a truly horrible statistic for them.

Looking at their games against sides in the top six, those five matches have produced 23 goals. That's an average of almost five per game. So in other words, when you see Newcastle playing away to a strong opponent, expect lots of goals.

Historically speaking, this fixture produces action as well, with five of their last six meetings ending up high-scoring, including all three games at the Etihad. It's also worth noting that Newcastle found the net in five of those six fixtures, indicating that the Toon Army should enjoy at least one moment of celebration during the 90 minutes.

Recommended Bet

Back Over 2.5 goals @ 1.61

Sunday

Aston Villa v Liverpool

Given the current precarious global financial climate, backing goals in Liverpool games must now represent one of the best investment opportunities anywhere in the world, given that it offers investors high returns at minimal risk.

That might sound like big talk, so I'll let the stats speak for themselves. Of Liverpool's last 15 matches, 14 of those have produced more than two-and-a-half goals. That's a 93 per cent strike rate. And of those 15 matches, all eight of Liverpool's away games were high-scoring.

For those who find themselves still hesitant, plenty of other criteria also point towards goals. Firstly, for Liverpool to keep alive their fading dream of a Champions League spot, they simply have to win on Sunday. So the pressure is on them to attack.

There's also the matter of revenge, after Villa came away from Anfield with a shock 3-1 victory earlier in the season. That result suggests Paul Lambert knows the tactics required to cause Liverpool problems, and it also gives the Reds plenty of motivation.

There should also be little danger of Villa keeping the score down, given that 12 of their last 15 games have also been high-scoring.

Recommended Bet

Back Over 2.5 goals @ 1.73

Real Valladolid v Osasuna

And I'll head to La Liga for my final selection, and a match involving two teams who are just looking to keep their heads above water in the relegation battle.

For Valladolid, it's almost job done. Probably they need another five points or so from their last ten games, so they're under little pressure. But that's a dangerous mindset for a team who struggle to dominate at home, and who've won just five of their 14 games at the Jose Zorrilla Stadium. Complacency is a concern.

And don't expect Osasuna to come bearing many gifts. The 'Little Red Ones' are used to finishing in the comfort of midtable. But in this, their 13th straight season in the top flight, they've surprisingly found themselves caught up in the relegation scrap.

With just 32 goals conceded in 28 games though, it's certainly not their defence that's to blame. A lack of goals is the clear culprit here, with Osasuna having scored less than any other team in the division. But that solid defence should ultimately be what saves Osasuna's blushes, with six of their last seven matches having been low-scoring.

Recommended Bet

Back Under 2.5 goals @ 1.67