Value Alert: Back in-form Chelsea to win at Man United

4May 2013

England - Premier League

Friday means it's value finding time, as Christian Crowther goes in search ahead of the weekend's Premier League action...

The Value Alert widget contrasts odds calculated using an algorithm that takes into account short and long-term form, variation in home and away performance, records against teams in specific parts of the table and recent head-to-head results with the latest Betfair prices.

This flags up the area in which public perception most contradicts statistical evidence in either the match odds or over/under 2.5 goals market, identifying potential back or lay value.

With a gentle nudge from our value finding friend and a few persuasive words in this column, punters hopefully heeded the advice to back the Over 2.5 goals market when Liverpool visited St James' Park on Saturday.

That mark was not only surpassed, it was smashed to smithereens as Newcastle left the gate swinging all afternoon and Liverpool's Philippe Coutinho in particular punished them for it.

Those who claimed the extra 0.48 in value from this goal-fest would have been even more enamoured with their afternoon's punting had Daniel Sturridge (as highlighted in this column) been a nominated scorer to boot.

Enough gloating though, ten more juicy top-flight fixtures lie in wait and the Value Finder widget has flagged up some really interesting prices to examine.

Sunday's televised teatime showdown has caught the Value Finder's attention with Betfair's price of 3.55 on a Chelsea win at Old Trafford a little too generous according to the stats.

Considering Chelsea have twice overcame Sir Alex Ferguson's troops already this campaign (once after extra time), it's a tempting little bet.

Of course, United won the reverse league fixture but, even in that 3-2 victory, Chelsea had to make do without two players for a large part of the second half due to red cards for Branislav Ivanovic and Fernando Torres.

Premier League Manager of the Month Rafa Benitez has his Chelsea players with real confidence - unbeaten in five games across all competitions including four wins - and, though United will in no way lie down now that the title is secured, a stab at a Blues win seems very reasonable.

Elsewhere, comfortably safe Fulham entertain a Royals visit from a Reading side free of the shackles of impending doom.

Backing Reading 5.6 to win at the Cottage could well be worth your while according to the Value Finder, which eyes up a juicy 2.25 extra value based on form.