Vettel is on pole, but back Fernando Alonso to emerge victorious from Malaysia

23Mar 2013

Despite Sebastian Vettel securing the 38th pole position of his career, James Frankland believes Fernando Alonso is the man to back in Malaysia...

Qualifying for the Malaysian Grand Prix served up its usual cocktail of changeable conditions, but it was Sebastian Vettel who made the right call at the right time to emerge with his 38th career pole position, and second of the season.

He is joined on the front row by Felipe Massa, showing a strong return to form for Ferrari by outqualifying Fernando Alonso, who lines up third, for the fourth consecutive race. Lewis Hamilton joins Alonso on the second row, the British driver having briefly held pole position in the rain-affected third qualifying session before dropping back as conditions improved.

Picking a winner from the current grid is a tricky prospect with more rainfall expected on race day. This can shuffle the pack dramatically, as we saw last year with Alonso winning from ninth place and polesitter Hamilton winding up third. Based on what we saw in Australia, there looks a decent chance that Vettel will find himself jumped by one or both Ferraris off the start, so I like the look of Alonso's odds at 4.0 to take the win tomorrow. Ferrari can be backed at 2.52 to provide the winning car if you fancy Massa can remain ahead of his Spanish teammate throughout.

It's also worth checking the odds for both Ferrari drivers in the First Lap Leader market - in Melbourne the Scuderia drivers qualified fourth and fifth but finished the opening lap second and third, so the car would appear to start well and Vettel may not be able to hold them back on the 660m run to the first corner.

Last week's winner, Kimi Raikkonen, qualified in the same position - seventh - as in Melbourne and will hope that his Lotus E21 is as kind to its tyres in the heat of Malaysia as it was in Australia's relatively cool conditions. If so, he looks a strong bet for a podium at 2.0 as most people are expecting to stop three or even four times, so the Lotus' ability to run a stop less should pay dividends and may even see the Iceman challenging for the win if circumstances go his way.

Get behind Mercedes new boy Hamilton at 1.4 to finish in the top six too - in the dry he probably won't have the pace to hang onto the leading group, but shouldn't suffer too much pressure from behind. In the wet, he ought to figure strongly in the leading group.

Recommended Bets

Fernando Alonso to win 4.0

Kimi Raikkonen to finish on the podium 2.0

Lewis Hamilton to finish in the top six 1.4