West Brom v West Ham: Cagey affair as Baggies aim to get back on track

15Dec 2012

Premier League

Following three straight defeats Mike Norman expects West Brom to be a bit cautious when the Happy Hammers visit on Sunday afternoon, and that could mean a low-scoring affair...

West Brom v West Ham

Sunday 16:00, live on Sky Sports 1

Not many clubs get to overachieve in the Premier League; Newcastle most certainly did last season, and this season it's West Brom, and to a lesser extent, West Ham, who are amongst the overachievers.

Even allowing for their recent three straight defeats the Baggies are doing magnificently to be in the top six on the same number of points as top-four contenders Everton and Tottenham. And considering the Hammers are one of the newly-promoted clubs, to be tucked away in mid-table, just four points behind the fourth-placed side, is a great start to their campaign.

Depending on results that precede this game, a win for Albion will see them in no worse than a share for third place, whilst a West Ham victory could see them climb four places, so there's plenty to play for.

Current form

As alluded too earlier, Steve Clarke's men have lost three straight Premier League fixtures, but those defeats came at a time when not many people saw it coming. The Baggies had previously won four on the trot and looked a really solid outfit, especially at the Hawthorns. But they played poorly at Swansea before being out-smarted at home to Stoke, and now they have a little to prove.

One of the keys to Albion's success is keeping clean sheets, especially at home (Opta tell us they've kept seven in their last 12 home games) but it's just one shut-out in 12 league games now and that has to be a worry.

West Ham's recent form has been a bit hit and miss; three defeats, two wins, and a draw from their last six. The general perception is that the Hammers are strong at home and poor away, but seven points from seven away games isn't a bad return at all, especially given that they've travelled to Tottenham, Manchester United, and Newcastle already this term.

One worry however is the fact that Sam Allardyce's men have mustered just five goals on their travels this term, only bottom-four clubs Aston Villa and Wigan have scored fewer.

Match Odds

West Brom can be backed at just above even money (2.02) to get the victory but the feeling is that they will be more than happy to prevent three straight defeats becoming four, and therefore an emphasis on keeping out the Hammers will be the priority.

That's not to say Albion won't score one or two at the other end but the sense is that this will be a well contested affair with few goals in the offering. The Draw can be backed at 3.65 and is the preferred wager. An away victory is available to back at 4.2.

Over/Under 2.5 Goals

Albeit by a tiny margin, I was really surprised to see Under 2.5 Goals the outsider in this market at 2.02. I genuinely expected to see around 1.8 being quoted so it's obvious what my best bet of the game is going to be.

Despite their excellent start to the season, games involving West Brom haven't been prolific. In fact, four of their first six games this term went under the 2.5 goals mark and their last two defeats also ended this way. And with those three recent defeats in the memory I can see Albion keeping this game tight.

The Hammers on the other hand, as I've already mentioned, just don't score many goals on the road. They try and keep it tight themselves, protect what they have, and see if they can pinch something at the other end. Neither West Ham's away games, nor Albion's home games have averaged over 2.5 goals this term and that augers well for 'Unders' to be landed here.

Correct Score

I definitely believes the 0-0 (13.5) scoreline is worth a wager in this market from a back-to-lay perspective as I envisage a cagey affair with few chances in the opening exchanges. Try and hang on until half-time however, where the 0-0 should collapse to around 4.0 should the game remain goalless.

Alternatively, dutch the 0-0, 1-0, and 1-1 scorelines at odds of 3.1 and hope that the game pans out exactly as I expect.

Recommended Bets

Back Under 2.5 Goals @ 2.02

Back The Draw @ 3.65

Back-to-lay 0-0 Correct Score @ 13.5

Dutch 0-0, 1-0 and 1-1 Correct Scores @ 3.1