You still can't rely on South Africa

 

Bafana Bafana may top Group A going into Sunday's games but James Eastham says their safe passage into the quarter-finals is far from a foregone conclusion.

 

Morocco v South Africa (Sun)

Live on British Eurosport, 17:00 GMT, Match Odds: Morocco 3.4, South Africa 2.44, The Draw 3.25

 

Morocco have been one of the tournament's major disappointments so far. After an underwhelming 0-0 draw against Angola in their opening game, they needed a late Youssef El Arabi equaliser to earn a point against Cape Verde in their second match last Wednesday.

 

The Atlas Lions are therefore under some pressure going into their final group game against South Africa. There are various ways they can qualify - outlined in some detail here - but as the final group games kick-off simultaneously, the only way Morocco can guarantee going through is by beating South Africa.

 

Hosts South Africa also got off to a sticky start, drawing 0-0 against Cape Verde, but improved to beat Angola 2-0 in their second game. And yet even that second performance was unconvincing. Despite the improvement, there were still signs of weakens, suggesting that, if Morocco play closer to their potential than we have seen so far, South Africa may struggle to win.

 

The do-or-die nature of this game ought to focus Morocco's minds.  I expect a better performance from them, and would rather support them as underdogs than back favourites South Africa, whose price is too short for me considering how they have played so far. Throw in the fact a draw will be good enough for South Africa to progress, and you have more reason to oppose South Africa on the Match Odds market or through some other selection.

 

Morocco with some sort of Asian Handicap start is my choice.

 

 

Cape Verde v Angola (Sun)

Live on British Eurosport 2, 17:00 GMT, Match Odds: Cape Verde 2.86, Angola 2.8, The Draw 3.25

 

The only way Angola can advance to the quarter-finals is by winning and Morocco not winning against South Africa. And the most important part of that two-part strategy as regards how this game might play out is the part they control: Angola have to win.

 

That should lead to an open game of chances at both ends. That, in turn, plays into Cape Verde's hands. We got a hint of their attacking potential in their 1-1 draw against Morocco last Wednesday. Against more open opponents I can see Cape Verde improving on the attacking quality they showed in that last match.

 

As for what Cape Verde need to do to go through - put simply, it's complicated. The link above gives you the complete breakdown of how teams can progress from this group, but the only way Lucio Antunes' side can be sure of progressing is by winning. That's another reason I predict an open game of scoring chances.

 

All four games in this group so far have had under 2.5 goals (including two goalless draws) but for this match I would rather be on overs at 2.54 than unders at 1.61.

 

Eighteen of 39 (46%) final round group games at the past five African Cup of Nations finals have had three goals or more. Based on those stats, the price on overs is too big.

 

Recommended Bets

Best Bet: Cape Verde v Angola Over 2.5 Goals @ 2.54

Morocco +0 Asian Handicap v South Africa @ 2.2

 

Bet HERE

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